Can discrete choice experiments be used to predict uptake of new drugs?
Key objective:
To explore whether discrete choice experiments can be used to predict uptake of new drugs?
The Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) is responsible for evaluating clinical and economic evidence and making recommendations to the Australian Minister for Health and Ageing on whether a drug should be listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). Forecasts of the financial implications of a new PBS listing are required to ensure that resources are available to fund the new drug and the impact on health budgets will not be overly strenuous. Unfortunately the estimated uptake of new drugs is often based on weak evidence.
The aim of this study is to explore the use of discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to predict uptake of new drugs. The study will involve 1) a review of currently available DCEs that may be used to predict uptake of new drugs; 2) testing the external validity of the DCEs by comparing the results to mature prescribing data; and 3) design a model using DCE data that predicts uptake over time and then test the external validity of the model using the same process as before.
Funding source
Faculty of Business Research Grant
CHERE staff
Bonny Parkinson, Richard Norman, Rosalie Viney
